People costSalary × (1 + payroll load) ÷ 12, counted only from each hire's start month. A hire who starts in month 6 of an 18-month plan costs 13 months, not 18.
Operating costRecurring non-people spend: RPC/indexing infra, tools, legal & accounting retainers, community, conferences. Crypto teams underestimate travel and legal.
Cost inflation (CPI)Real price drift: (1 + CPI)^(m/12). Over 18–24 months it adds ~2–4%. This is the "inflation" that belongs on costs.
Market regimeYour bull/bear factor moves four dials, none of them a cost multiplier: how long the raise takes (+cushion, +contingency), what cap the market prices, and how much investors will write above your plan (+40% oversubscribed in a bull, "cut burn" in a bear). Bear raises your need and shrinks the ask; bull does the reverse.
RunwayBuild-to-milestone months + months the next raise takes (3 bull → 6 bear) + cushion. The round must fund the milestone and the raise after it.
Revenue & grantsSubtracted from burn, haircut by regime. Ecosystem grants (chain foundations) are probability-weighted; protocol fees ramp linearly to the milestone.
ContingencyApplied to net burn only (15–25%). Hires slip later but cost more; scope always grows. Not applied to one-offs, which already carry quotes.
One-off costsLumpy, dated items: audits + remediation passes, entity setup, liquidity seeding, bug bounty reserve, the Alliance NYC onboarding, round legal.
Top-down checkWhat the market lets you sell: post-money × max dilution. Post-money SAFEs stack additively (Alliance's $400k at $4M = 10% on its own). If need > capacity, cut scope or tranche — don't just accept 30% dilution.